So far, as of 3/4/18, the Mueller investigation has returned several indictments and several cooperative witnesses.  Of prominent note is that none of the indictments made so far involve information obtained from the cooperative witnesses.

Presumably, the reason Mueller offered the cooperating witnesses leniency on charges is that these cooperative witnesses offered information of value.

Mueller has turned Michael Flynn.
Mueller has turned George Papadopoulos.
Mueller has turned Rick Gates.

If we assume Gates is providing evidence against Manafort, this could be of limited impact on Trump and associates.  But what about the information provided by Papadopoulos and Flynn – particularly Flynn.

Presumably they offered something of value in return for leniency.  Yet nothing has emerged yet from their cooperation. 

As the national security advisor, Flynn is pretty high up in the pecking order.  Obtaining indictments against Flynn is a meritorious accomplishment.  Yet Mueller decided to forego nailing Flynn’s hide to the wall because the information Flynn could provide about nailing someone still higher in the pecking order.  But who’s higher than the national security advisor?

My money’s on Kushner.  My guess is that the Flynn information nails Jared Kushner.  Flynn remains loyal to Trump (and perhaps has no information on Trump), but Flynn throws Kushner under the bus to protect Flynn’s son (who is also in trouble with Mueller).

That’s my guess.  But before Mueller nails Kushner’s hide to the wall Mueller wants to get as much as is there, and he’s tying up the loose ends of Kushner peddling access and favors for money for his business.  Methodical and thorough.

Papadopolous may also have information about Kushner’s involvement with the Russian media campaign (Mueller’s indictment of 13 Russians) through Kushner’s involvement in running the Trump campaign’s “secret data operation” (Forbes, 11/22/16).  Remember, Kushner was also responsible for trying to set up “backchannel” communication with Russia (Business Insider, 7/24/17).

The Flynn information has yet to yield fruit.  My guess is that Kushner is in a world of trouble.

My guess on the Papadopoulos information is that it targets Trump Jr.’s involvement in the email hacking.  Setting up the email “conspiracy” is likely to be the next methodical step in the Mueller probe, with indictments of the people who were engaged in the hack.

These first two sets of indictments set up the structure for the second round of indicting U.S. citizens (Kushner and Trump Jr.) who were co-conspirators.

So we’re just waiting for the next shoe to drop.  What (who) did Flynn’s cooperation provide?  What (who) did Papadopoulos’ cooperation provide?  My money’s on Kushner and Trump Jr.  The big Trump is going down on obstruction of justice charges.

Craig Childress, Psy.D.